Trump Campaign Sees Opportunity as Harris’ Support Wanes in Key Swing States
As the countdown to the presidential election ticks down to just over three weeks, top operatives from Donald Trump’s campaign are expressing a newfound confidence in their ability to secure crucial swing states. According to a recent memorandum from senior advisers Chris LaCivita and Susie Wiles, along with pollster Tony Fabrizio, the metrics for Democratic nominee Kamala Harris are showing signs of significant decline, which they believe could tilt the election in Trump’s favor.
The memo, shared with reporters on Sunday, paints a picture of a Democratic campaign that is “cracking” at a critical moment. With RealClearPolitics projecting Trump to secure 296 electoral votes—well above the 270 needed for victory—his team argues that Harris’ supposed momentum has been a mirage, fading since the summer. In fact, internal data suggests that Harris has slipped in both her favorability ratings and her standing in head-to-head matchups against Trump since Labor Day.
The Numbers Tell a Story
Harris currently sits 5 points underwater in favorability, a drop from -3 just a month ago. In a direct comparison with Trump, she finds herself trailing by 2 points, a stark contrast to the dead heat they shared previously. This shift is particularly alarming for the Harris campaign, as it comes at a time when every vote counts.
Digging deeper into the numbers, Trump’s campaign highlights a remarkable 13-point improvement among independent voters compared to his performance in 2020. He now leads Harris by 5 points within this pivotal demographic. While Trump still faces challenges with Black voters—trailing by 61 points—this is an improvement from the 81-point deficit he experienced in the last election. Additionally, he has made strides with Hispanic voters, now leading by 7 points, a significant turnaround from a 25-point loss in 2020.
Harris as the Status Quo
One of the key arguments from Team Trump is that Harris is perceived as an agent of the status quo, a narrative that could hinder her appeal to voters seeking change. Despite her attempts to distance herself from the Biden administration, many voters are not convinced that she can be the transformative leader they desire. Issues such as the economy, inflation, and public safety are at the forefront of voters’ minds, and Trump’s campaign claims he holds an advantage on all these fronts.
Polling data reveals that voters believe Trump is more capable than Harris in several critical areas: 49% think he would do a better job as president, while 50% trust him more to fight inflation and improve the economy. When it comes to public safety, however, Harris struggles even more. Only 38% of respondents believe she can effectively combat crime, and a mere 28% trust her to secure the border.
The Challenge of Perception
Beyond the numbers, Team Trump argues that Harris’ inconsistent positions on key issues—like cashless bail and fracking—have left voters confused about her true stance. They contend that her attempts to reinvent herself have not resonated with the electorate, who are increasingly skeptical of her authenticity.
In a political landscape where perception can be as important as policy, Harris’ struggles to connect with voters could prove detrimental. As the Trump campaign sees it, the combination of Harris’ declining metrics and Trump’s resurgence among independents and minority groups could set the stage for a surprising outcome in the upcoming election.
As the days dwindle down to November, both campaigns are gearing up for a fierce battle in these swing states. With Trump’s team feeling optimistic and Harris’ campaign facing mounting pressure, the next few weeks will be critical in determining the direction of the race. Whether Harris can regain her footing or if Trump can capitalize on this momentum remains to be seen, but one thing is clear: the stakes have never been higher.
