Democrats Worry as Kamala Harris Faces Challenges with Black Voters Ahead of 2024 Election
In the lead-up to the 2024 presidential election, U.S. Democrats are expressing concern over Vice President Kamala Harris’s waning support among Black voters, particularly Black men. Recent polls indicate that this crucial demographic may be drifting away from Harris, raising alarms within the party about her chances in the upcoming election. In response, Harris unveiled an "Opportunity Agenda for Black Men" on October 14, aiming to rekindle support and address the specific needs of this community.
The stakes are high, and the pressure is mounting. Harris’s campaign is acutely aware that Black voters have historically been a cornerstone of Democratic success. However, with troubling signs of discontent, some party members fear that losing ground with this key group could jeopardize not only Harris’s candidacy but also the broader Democratic agenda.
Adding to the conversation, U.S. Congressman Byron Donalds, a supporter of former President Donald Trump, has weighed in, suggesting that Black voters should consider supporting Trump instead. On a recent episode of CNN’s State of the Union, Donalds pointed to wage growth during Trump’s presidency as a reason for Black Americans to shift their allegiance. He claimed that wages adjusted for inflation saw significant increases for Black men and families during Trump’s time in office, a narrative that he argues Democrats often overlook.
While it’s true that wages for Black Americans did rise under Trump, the context is crucial. Data shows that wage growth for Black men and families actually accelerated under President Joe Biden, even amidst the challenges of high inflation. In fact, inflation-adjusted wages for Black men increased by 5.7% under Biden, compared to a modest 1.8% rise during Trump’s presidency. This trend is significant, especially considering that the wage gap between Black and white Americans widened during Trump’s term but has since begun to narrow under Biden.
Douglas Holtz-Eakin, president of the American Action Forum, dismissed Donalds’s claims, stating, "I can’t find any way that suggests that [Donalds] is right. No economist is pointing to this." This sentiment reflects a broader consensus among economists who argue that while wage growth occurred under Trump, it was outpaced by the gains made during Biden’s administration.
To put the numbers into perspective, let’s break down the wage statistics. For Black Americans overall, inflation-adjusted weekly earnings rose from approximately $275 under Obama to $281 under Trump, a mere 2% increase. Under Biden, that figure jumped to $298, marking a 6% rise. For Black men specifically, wages increased from about $290 under Obama to $295 under Trump, and then to $312 under Biden. This data clearly illustrates that the economic benefits for Black Americans have been more pronounced under Biden.
Moreover, the narrative around the wage gap is equally telling. Under Trump, the average wage gap between Black and white Americans widened from $74.5 to $84.9. In contrast, under Biden, that gap has narrowed to $74.40. This trend is mirrored for Black men, where the gap increased from $96 to $105.30 under Trump, before decreasing to $92.80 under Biden.
So, why have wages for Black Americans risen faster under Biden? Experts suggest that a combination of factors, including a tight labor market and pandemic-era stimulus measures, has empowered workers, particularly those in lower-income brackets, to negotiate better wages. Calvin Schermerhorn, a historian at Arizona State University, notes that Biden’s policies have provided workers with more options and bargaining power, leading to higher real wages.
As Harris continues to navigate these complex dynamics, her campaign’s focus on the needs of Black men through her Opportunity Agenda may be a crucial step in regaining lost support. With the election just around the corner, the pressure is on for Harris to connect with this vital voter base and demonstrate that the Democratic Party remains committed to their economic empowerment.
In summary, while Donalds’s assertions about wage growth under Trump may resonate with some, the data tells a different story. The economic gains for Black Americans have been more substantial under Biden, and as the election approaches, it will be essential for Harris and the Democrats to effectively communicate this message to ensure they retain the support of Black voters.
