Congress Faces Setback in Haryana Assembly Polls: A Deep Dive into the Data
In a surprising twist of fate, the Congress party, which was expected to dominate the Haryana assembly elections, found itself grappling with a significant defeat. Just five months after securing over a thousand votes in a booth during the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the party managed to garner a mere 62 votes from the same location in the recent assembly elections. This stark contrast has left Congress leaders scratching their heads, prompting a thorough analysis of polling data to uncover the reasons behind this unexpected downturn.
The Haryana assembly elections saw the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) clinching 48 out of 90 seats, marking a historic hat-trick for the party. Meanwhile, Congress could only secure 37 seats, a far cry from the sweeping victory that many pollsters and pundits had predicted. The results have sent shockwaves through the Congress ranks, leading to an urgent need for introspection and strategy reassessment.
In Uchana Kalan, the BJP’s Devender Chatar Bhuj Attari narrowly defeated Congress’s Brijendra Singh by just 32 votes, while independent candidate Virender Ghogharian emerged as a surprise contender, receiving a staggering 31,456 votes. This outcome has raised eyebrows and questions about the shifting political landscape in Haryana, particularly regarding the influence of independent candidates who seem to have captured a significant portion of the electorate.
In light of these developments, Congress analysts are diving deep into the poll data, aiming to reconstruct the voting patterns that led to their disappointing performance. This marks the first time the party will analyze data down to the booth level, a move that underscores the seriousness of their situation. A senior Congress leader emphasized the urgency of this analysis, stating, “We will take 4-5 days to complete the process. It is important to know what really went wrong at the polling level.”
The party’s leadership, including Rahul Gandhi, is keen to understand the discrepancies that led to this electoral setback. Following a review meeting, Congress treasurer Ajay Maken expressed disbelief at the results, which starkly contrasted with the predictions made by exit polls. “Nobody thought such results would come that would be entirely different from the exit polls. We discussed the possible reasons for this defeat,” he said.
Adding to the controversy, Congress has raised concerns about the integrity of the electronic voting machines (EVMs) used during the elections. They alleged that discrepancies in battery capacities across at least seven assembly seats could have influenced the counting process, with some machines reportedly operating at 99% charge while others were as low as 60-70%. This claim has been formally submitted to the Election Commission for investigation.
The Congress party’s analysis will focus on the major deviations in voting patterns between the Lok Sabha and assembly elections. While they secured five out of ten seats in the Lok Sabha polls, retaining that momentum proved elusive. “We would also look at places where not-so-strong independents got a massive share of votes,” noted a party leader involved in the analysis.
Despite the grim outlook for Congress in Haryana, where they struggled to connect with non-Jat voters, analysts believe that this data-driven approach could be crucial for future electoral strategies. By understanding the nuances of voter behavior and preferences, Congress hopes to refine its data models and improve its chances in upcoming elections.
As the party embarks on this analytical journey, the stakes are high. The lessons learned from this electoral setback could shape the future of Congress in Haryana and beyond, making it imperative for them to get to the bottom of what went wrong. With the political landscape constantly evolving, the ability to adapt and respond to voter sentiments will be key to reclaiming lost ground.
