Trump and Harris in a Dead Heat as Election Day Approaches
With less than a month to go before the highly anticipated Election Day, the race for the presidency has taken a dramatic turn. Former President Donald Trump has erased a four-point deficit and is now tied with Vice President Kamala Harris, according to a recent Yahoo News/YouGov poll. Both candidates are garnering 47% support among likely voters, setting the stage for a nail-biting finish as the clock ticks down.
This latest poll marks a significant shift from September, when Harris held a lead over Trump, 49% to 45%. The new numbers reflect a growing momentum for Trump, who has been hitting the campaign trail hard, making appearances almost every day as he rallies his base and seeks to regain the White House.
The Yahoo News/YouGov survey is one of the first to be released following last week’s vice presidential debate between Republican Senator JD Vance of Ohio and Democratic Minnesota Governor Tim Walz. The debate appears to have influenced public perception, with a plurality of viewers (41%) declaring Vance the winner, while only 32% favored Walz. Interestingly, both candidates received similar ratings when voters were asked if they were “weird,” with 36% labeling Walz as such and 38% doing the same for Vance.
Despite the debate dynamics, Harris is positioning herself as the underdog in this contest. She currently holds a narrow lead in the popular vote among registered voters, edging out Trump 46% to 45% in a five-way ballot that includes candidates from the Green Party, Libertarian Party, and independent candidates.
When it comes to key issues, the poll reveals that Trump is leading Harris on four out of six topics that matter most to voters. He has the edge on handling the cost of living (45%-39%), crime (44%-36%), immigration (50%-35%), and the ongoing conflict in the Middle East (45%-32%). However, Harris shines on issues like abortion, where she leads 51%-29%, and democracy, with a 45%-34% advantage.
Public sentiment about the direction of the country remains largely negative, with only 27% of Americans believing the U.S. is heading in the right direction, while a staggering 60% feel the nation is on the wrong track. This discontent may be fueling Trump’s resurgence, as he nearly breaks even in approval ratings from his time in office (47% approve, 48% disapprove), while Harris struggles with a job approval rating that sits underwater at 41% approval and 50% disapproval.
The poll, which sampled 1,714 U.S. adults from October 2 to 4, has a margin of error of plus-or-minus 2.9 percentage points. As the campaign heats up, Harris currently leads Trump by an average of 2.1% in the national popular vote, a margin reminiscent of the 2016 election, where Trump lost the popular vote but won the Electoral College.
Looking ahead, the RealClearPolitics aggregate of head-to-head polling shows Trump flipping key battleground states like Arizona, Georgia, and Pennsylvania, potentially securing 281 electoral votes and paving the way for a comeback as the 47th president.
As both candidates ramp up their efforts in these final weeks, the stakes couldn’t be higher. Voters are gearing up for what promises to be a fiercely contested election, with every poll and debate likely to sway public opinion in unexpected ways. Stay tuned as the drama unfolds!
